I tuned out of the Oscars last year for two reasons:
1) I cared about so few of the nominees aside from The Favourite that it didn’t feel worth my time.
2) They aired while I was on a plane to Hawaii.
Given 2019’s stellar film lineup, I suddenly care again. As always, I’m not completely thrilled with the nominee list, but it’s so much better than last year. Keep in mind that the Oscars are never about identifying and honoring the best films and performances of the year – they’re about what production company threw the most money into PR, which actor or actress starved themselves the most for their role, and how timely these films are to our current political climate. Here are my gut reactions to this year’s nominees, by category:
Best Original Screenplay:
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
For every award that Parasite is nominated for, I’m going to say it deserves to win. Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time have a real shot at this one, and are probably the more likely winners, but…Parasite deserves it.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
This is a strange category for me. I haven’t seen it yet, but the new Little Women adaptation must be something really fucking special. The Two Popes deserves nothing. I’m not sure Jojo Rabbit is the kind of film that wins in a screenplay category. While I still think it has a shot, calling Joker an “adapted” screenplay is a stretch. Even without seeing it, I think The Irishman has a real chance at winning this category too.
Visual Effects:
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
It’s pretty comical that what completely ruined The Lion King for me – the visual effects – is the one category it’s nominated in. I’ve also heard many complaints about the digital de-aging in The Irishman, so I’m surprised to see it make an appearance. Of course, the big showy blockbuster nominees are here – Endgame and Star Wars. The VFX award doesn’t usually go to a war film, so 1917 is probably a pity nomination. This is a pretty bland category, making it a difficult one to predict.
Sound Editing:
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I really don’t get Once Upon a Time’s inclusion on here, or Joker for that matter. I don’t see Star Wars grabbing this one. It’s a race between Ford v Ferrari and 1917. One of them is a war movie, meaning 1917 is both an unsurprising nomination and a front-runner.
Sound Mixing:
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
All misgivings about the previous category apply here, although it’s noteworthy that Star Wars has been replaced by Ad Astra. Ad Astra has space going for it, but 1917 is still a war film. This is essentially the same 1917 v Ferrari scenario, and I think if one wins this category, the opposing film will win Sound Editing. Or 1917 just sweeps up both categories…because it’s a war movie.
Live Action Short Film:
(A bunch of shit you’ve never had the opportunity to see and haven’t heard of)
Documentary Short Subject:
(Ditto)
Animated Short Film:
(Basically ditto)
Production Design:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
It’s a little strange to me that Little Women didn’t make it into this category on the basis of being a period piece. I’m also baffled by Parasite’s inclusion, even though it deserves a win over everything else. The rest of the nominees are recreating time periods, so they at least all make sense in this category. Once Upon a Time probably has a bit of an edge given how much painstaking detail was put into its 60s recreation, but The Irishman probably still has a shot.
Best Original Song:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into The Unknown,” Frozen II
“Stand Up,” Harriet
Best Original Song is an utterly bizarre category this year. While it does tend to showcase music from films that otherwise would never be nominated for anything, this year’s nominations just make me want to wretch. Randy Newman for Toy Story 4? Gross! Rocketman (a film I despised) and its original song nomination is horribly ironic given the fact that it’s the only song in the film Elton John didn’t write – meaning it’s the worst song in the film. Harriet, another movie the rest of us haven’t even heard of until now, was nominated for what appears to be a slave revolt anthem. I don’t know how to feel about that, but I have a hunch Academy tokenism is involved. Frozen II’s hilarious attempt to emulate the success of Let It Go has guilted its way onto this list. Breakthrough, a really awful Christian film about exploiting a child’s near-death experience, is also represented on this list. It’s a damn shame, too, because we have the Dove awards for that. Go back to your own award ceremony, Christian films! You don’t deserve a seat at the big-boy table until you can distribute a proper film that isn’t horrendously boring, transparently politically-motivated, or full of unintentionally disturbing connotations that arise from poor writing.
Best Original Score:
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The music nominations this year are odd. For best original score, you’ve got the Star Wars pity-nomination for John Williams (who, truthfully, is still being nominated for the score he penned in 1977), another Desplat nomination, Joker’s impossible-to-pronounce Scandinavian dude, Thomas Newman for 1977…and Randy fucking Newman for Marriage Story. I hate Randy Newman with a bloody passion, but his work in Marriage Story is, I hate to admit, not terrible. Still, I would hate to see that man win an Oscar…again.
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
I don’t get 1917’s inclusion, but I haven’t seen it yet. I would love to see Joker win in this category, because while it’s such an unorthodox pick, it does feel more deserving than the others on this list…at least to me.
International Feature Film:
Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Misérables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Just to get this out of the way, Les Misérables is not what you think it is. I’ve only heard vague whisperings of Honeyland and Corpus Christi. Pain and Glory and Parasite are the clear front-runners. Parasite is the easy choice, and I don’t foresee an upset. The Farewell is the big snub here, and I wish it was on this list instead of Les Misérables.
Film Editing:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite
Film Editing is traditionally the category that determines best picture more than any other, aside from Best Director. If Ford v Ferrari had been nominated in more categories, I’d say it’s the second-most likely to win – and it probably still is. I think it’s most likely going to Parasite, and that’s yet another category that strengthens the case for Parasite winning Best Picture. I still don’t know what Jojo Rabbit is doing on this list. The Academy must love Nazis.
Documentary Feature:
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
For Sama has been critically lauded, but not widely seen. The Cave hasn’t seen much traction this award season, so it’s an interesting inclusion. I’m happy to see The Edge of Democracy on this list. Honeyland exists. I’m going to say American Factory is probably the big front-runner here, because it’s very timely, popular, and on Netflix. With these smaller categories, it often comes down to how many voters actually saw a film, rather than which one they enjoyed the most.
Costume Design:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
I do not understand Jojo Rabbit’s costume design nomination. It’s a fine film, but what is this nom for? Making Nazi costumes? Little Women was probably made with the sole purpose of winning this category, but Once upon a time and The Irishman are both period pieces of a different nature…so who knows.
Animated Feature Film:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Missing Link, oddly enough, has some award season traction. However, I think this may finally be the year we can count on Pixar NOT winning best animated film. I Lost My Body is certainly the movie that deserves this win by a mile, with Klaus behind. The rest is all bullshit. Then again, it’s usually bullshit that wins this category.
Cinematography:
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
This is The Lighthouse’s only nomination, and while I sincerely believe it deserves the award, it probably stands no chance. 1917 once again has “war movie” going for it, but other than that, this is a pretty split category, and it could determine the winner, except for one major factor – 1917’s cinematographer is Roger Deakins. Deakins has been a favorite for decades, so his loss would likely be an upset.
Directing:
The Irishman
Joker
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
Greta Gerwig is a pretty capable director, but the best director category this year is pretty stacked. I’m guessing she did not deserve the nomination there, and I really don’t think it’s a case of gender discrimination on the part of the Academy. Todd Phillips is the odd man out here, and I think he stands the least chance at taking home the gold. As for the rest…you have Scorcese, Sam Mendes, Tarantino, and Bong Joon-Ho. That’s a pretty intimidating list. I would have liked to have seen Noah Baumbach here for Marriage Story, replacing Todd Phillips.
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
ScarJo is a double-nominee this year, and while that makes me happy, I don’t think she deserves to be recognized for her work in Jojo Rabbit. Her accent wasn’t very convincing, and *spoilers* her greatest emotional impact occurred AFTER her character was dead. *End spoilers.* Can we retroactively nominate her for Under the Skin? I haven’t seen it, but I don’t care about Bombshell. It looks like a tedious biopic nominated only because of its political relevance and high-profile stars, so I’m not even going to give Robbie’s nomination another glance for now. Laura Dern deserves this by far.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
I don’t want to see A Beautiful Day win anything, but at least they got it right and nominated Hanks in the supporting role rather than the lead – because that’s what he was. The double nomination for The Irishman probably doesn’t bode well for it, so I’m predicting Brad Pitt all the way. Anthony Hopkins is probably dead in the water.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Who the hell is Cynthia Erivo, and what is Harriet? ScarJo deserves this award by far, and the rest of the nominees are typical trashy Oscar-bait, at least that’s my suspicion. I’m not surprised that Awkwafina was snubbed for The Farewell in this category, because there’s just too much Oscar-bait here, and it lost the Best International Film nomination.
Actor in a Leading Role:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Pope
I would be shocked and disappointed if Pryce took this for The Two Popes. Phoenix has a real shot. I don’t think Leo is going anywhere with this one, Adam Driver’s performance is too understated, and Banderas, who probably deserves this the most, is nominated for a foreign film, decreasing his odds of winning in this category.
Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
It would excite me greatly if Parasite won best picture, which is a long-shot. I still vividly remember the year when Michael Haneke’s Amour received both the Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film nominations, but even though Haneke is one of my favorite directors, it still felt like Amour was a “legacy” nomination. The Oscars have a habit of recognizing someone’s past work by nominating their current, usually inferior work. Amour was, to me, one of Haneke’s weakest films, and while its Best Picture nomination was nice, it never stood a chance at winning anything beyond Best Foreign Language Film.
Parasite, however, stands a much better chance than something like Amour did at taking home the big prize. Bong Joon-Ho has been widely celebrated as a cult director, but unlike Amour where literally every other film from that director was better, Parasite is Bong’s highest-profile movie. It would be difficult to make the argument that his other films outshine Parasite. So now, you have a director at the absolute top of his game, whose films have lurked in the shadows for years, and STILL the film has a shot at winning Best Picture based on its own merits alone. It’s often said that the least controversial movies, the ones that will make it into every Academy members’ top 3, are the most likely to win. Parasite feels like that movie, and while its inclusion doesn’t quite qualify as a “legacy” nomination, it’s awfully close. I think the nominations this year weigh heavily in Parasite’s favor, but we’ll see if awards season knocks it down a peg.
Aside from Parasite, Once Upon a Time and The Irishman have the best chance at winning the big award. Marriage Story, Joker, and 1917 are all dark-horse picks, and their probability of winning will be determined by how the rest of the awards go.
A few more thoughts:
– Luce lost a lot of traction this award season, very quickly. I really wanted to see Naomi Watts and Tim Roth nominated side-by-side this year, but I also understood that this was incredibly optimistic. I don’t see this as a snub, but an advertising failure.
– I’m fully prepared to nap during the entire run-time of 1917 and Harriet.
– Frozen 2 not being nominated for best animated film is not a snub. Frozen 2 sucks.
– We need to stop giving bad Star Wars films nominations for VFX and score.
– Stop saying Lupita N’yongo deserved a nomination for Us. She didn’t. Playing two characters, one of which is just a soul-less doppelganger who speaks in a deep voice in a few scenes, is not the greatest display of N’yongo’s acting range. Frankly, her performance in Little Monsters this year was better. She’s a wonderful actress, Us just isn’t remotely her best work.
– On a similar note, stop pretending J-Lo deserved an acting nomination for Hustlers. This is still the vapid, industry-whoring sellout we used to know as Jenny from the block. J-Lo is very talented…at making money.
– I hate Scott Mantz. He’s halfway decent at Oscar predictions, but tell me this face isn’t going to appear in your nightmares:
Sweet dreams.